Let's Make a Deal

Let’s Make A Deal
Starting tomorrow, the Dodgers begin their final 70-game stretch of the 2011 season. They currently sit at 41-51, clinging to fourth place in the standings by one game over San Diego. They are 11 games behind the pace for the NL West lead and 13 out in the wild card. There are currently three teams in the National League- San Diego, Chicago, and Houston- with worse records. If we’re reading the charts at Baseball Prospectus correctly, there is currently a 0.8% chance that the Dodgers will make the playoffs this year. For those of you non-math majors out there, that’s not very good.

So of course we’ll be attempting to trade young players in our farm system to make a playoff run. Ned Colletti, in an article on the dodgers.com team site is quoted saying this: "That said, we need to execute better in the second half and gain the confidence that we can, and we'll be in buying mode at the [Trade] Deadline, as usual. I'm still confident we can make a run, pick up a game a week and be in a decent spot. We still have a load of games in the division."

Ned, I’m proud that you’ve got so much faith in this team. And I get it, kind of- you assembled this roster, so you’ve got to stand behind it and continue to assert that you’re doing a good job. But this team needs to sell. And it needs to sell NOW. Your owner is broke, the attendance is down 9,000 per game, and your minor league system has gaping holes. This is the perfect chance to:

A) Save a little money. Frank will be ecstatic to see you lower payroll by trading away player that are still due a couple million for the season, at least for however many more weeks/days/hours he still has control of the team. And once MLB takes over, I’m sure the other owners will be happy to not have to contribute quite as much to keep us afloat.

B) Restock the farm system. While we don’t have a lot of key trading chips, we can certainly use them to help out a farm system that needs position player prospects, particularly at third base and catcher.

C) Help energize the fan base. If you’re worried about a fan backlash, Ned, don’t be: you’re already experiencing one. With attendance down and the city filled with apathy for the on-field product and disgust for the off field shenanigans, now truly is the perfect time roll the dice and blow up the roster. The callups of Jerry Sands and Dee Gordon earlier in the season provided a jolt of fan goodwill, and allowed the writers covering the team to actually deliver some feel-good stories to the fans. Why not see what the new kids can do?

While the last thing I want is to bash the Dodgers, they are not a playoff caliber team as currently constructed. There are too many holes on this roster to patch up with midseason trades in an attempt to get back in the race. And the farm system (which we’ll start looking at in-depth within the next few weeks) really can’t handle another year of pillaging in an effort to finish the season 75-87 instead of 70-92. The smartest thing to do, at this point, is to make every effort to move Kuroda (if he’ll waive his no-trade clause), Blake, Furcal, Barajas, Carroll, Miles, MacDougal, Loney, Uribe, Guerrier and Lilly. Even Andre Ethier shouldn’t be labeled as untouchable- if made available, he’d be the best hitter on the trade market and would be worth several very good prospects. That’s something the future owner of the Dodgers- whomever that may be- is going to need. Now, we recognize that some, or most, of those players have very little value if any at all, but even getting a couple long shot prospects is probably preferable at this point. If nothing else, it will help get some of the younger players on the team some much needed on-the-job training.

Under no circumstances should Kershaw and Kemp be dealt- nor Billingsley, who is signed for several more years with a very team-friendly contract. And we need to hang on to all of the young players that have shown promise this year: De La Rosa, Sands, Gordon, and the young bullpen arms that have been surprisingly solid so far. But with so many other things aligned against the Dodgers right now, the smartest thing the team could do for its long-term health would be to sell.