The Dodgers should not spend big on the bullpen next year

Ned Colletti was recently quoted in an interview as saying "I don't think we're that far away" re: the 2012 Dodgers roster.  Strange as this statement may be, we thought we would take a look around at various parts of the team to add our ridiculously insightful opinions on what exactly he may mean, arbitrarily starting with the bullpen. 

When this season started, Jonathan Broxton, Vicente Padilla, and Hong-Chi Kuo were expected to be the bedrocks of the bullpen, a trio of “proven veteran leaders” (see what we did there?) that would dominate the last two to three innings of a game.  That plan worked out flawlessly.

Look, there is no getting around the fact that Broxton was a disappointment this year- though probably not because he lacked the balls to pitch. No matter how much people may say Broxton lacked the heart or guts or other cliches to close, his absence since May 5th shows that his ineffectiveness was due to SOMETHING being wrong with him physically.  Still, he brought no value to the Dodgers this year and will certainly be gone next season.  You can add Vicente Padilla to that list as well, for mostly the same reasons.  We wish them both a healthy recovery and a chance from another team- hopefully one in the American League, so they can’t shut us out 15 times next season as a Giant.  We’ll get to Kuo shortly.  

 
Before we get to the Kuo question, though, let’s look at the good that came from the early season bullpen implosion::  the Dodgers brought up four young pitchers who have quietly (too quietly) been very good this year.  Javy Guerra, Kenley Jansen, Scott Elbert and Josh Lindblom have all stepped up and provided Mattingly with some impressive weapons out of the bullpen.  Guerra got the flashy job- saves are overrated, but 18 of them in 19 attempts is pretty darn good. But what really jumps out to us is the fact that he's only given up one homerun in 169 plate appearances against him while holding opponents to a .602 OPS.  His strikeouts could stand to come up a little, but they're not terrible either.  We already did an entire post on Kenley Jansen so we won't rehash just how great he is here, but needless to say he's still awesome and in fact gotten even better since our post. He and Guerra should be handling the closing duties from here on out in one fashion or another.  Scott Elbert has long been an interesting case- the talent has never been questioned, but he's just never seemed to be able to put it all together,  in particular, his control has always been an issue.  This year, though he’s been used sparingly, it seems like he’s finally figured it out.  His ERA sits at 2.64 in just over thirty innings with 30 strikeouts and, here's the part that has us optimistic about his future, just 11 walks.  Josh Lindblom hasn't been quite as good as the previous three, at least in terms of his strikeout to walk numbers.  His ERA is a shiny 2.88 and he's holding opponents to just a .591 OPS so he's clearly doing something right, but in 25 innings pitched he's struck out 18 and walked 9 (though 3 of them were intentional).  These might not be dazzling stats, but they're good enough to go to battle with him next year.

That leaves us with four locks for the bullpen next year, all (here’s the great part) making the league minimum.  Matt Guerrier and his $3.75MM salary can be added to that list as well-  overpaid he might be, but he's still a veteran, rubber arm type of guy that can eat up middle innings and pitch back to back nights.  Plus, there’s no way anyone else would take him off our hands at that salary, so there you go.
 
So we have one to two spots open in the bullpen next year, depending on whether they go with an 11 or 12 man pitching staff out of the gate.  The current candidates include Hong-Chih Kuo, who has had all kinds of problems this year and stands to make a hefty chunk of change in arbitration next season, Blake Hawksworth, Mike MacDougal, Ramon Troncoso and John Ely.  It's hard to tell which direction the Dodgers will go, but I suspect they won't be willing to pay Hong-Chih Kuo too much, and will continue to have zero faith (for good reason) in Ramon Troncoso.  John Ely doesn't really seem suited to pitching out of the pen, but he has a shot to make the squad as a mop-up/swingman type.  We honestly wouldn't be surprised if Hawksworth and MacDougal are both brought back, and that's not necessarily a bad thing.  Those two probably would not be pitching the highest leverage innings and neither one has been too bad this year either.  

The bottom line is this: the Dodgers are in desperate need of offense and have little money to upgrade.  Let's put aside our hopes of Fielder or Pujols- that just isn’t going to happen- but they're going to have to do something.  Having a bullpen this good, and this cheap, is crucial to providing the payroll flexibility needed to sign a bat or two.  

Wishful Thinking

Could this wonderful partnership/friendship be coming to an end?

 In recent news there is a long shot chance (extremely long shot, so let's not get too excited) that the Cubs may be interested in our very own Ned Colletti to fill their opening for general manager.  Because of our admiration of his work and our desire to see him succeed, we here at Proven Veteran Leaders have decided to be grown-ups about this and submit the following letter of recommendation.

Dear Tom Ricketts,

We are writing on behalf of Ned Colletti, who we believe is an ideal fit to be the general manager of your fine franchise.  He got his start in your organization and we feel that a reunion would be good for you and good for baseball.  You see, Ned’s an old-school type, a real “baseball guy.”  He’s not one of those nerds who tend to rely on things like statistics and “facts” in their evaluations of baseball players.  He relies on his own damn peepers, and looks for players with guts and a knowledge of how to win.  You might be saying to yourself: “Those sound like intangible things with no real way to measure or quantify them.”  Well first of all, that sounds like Communist talk to us.  Second of all, and this really is the greatest thing about Ned Colletti.  There is a way to quantify intangibles, and Ned Colletti is the only one who can do it!  That’s right, he has figured out a way to measure the immeasurable, calculate the incalculable, tangabilize  the intangible. 

                It’s because of this we feel Ned Colletti would be a great leader for your organization.  In addition, he likes the same gritty white players the Cubs seem to enjoy.  We’ve employed both Ryan Theriot and Aaron Miles in the past two seasons.  Of course, you know all about Ryan Theriot as you traded him to the Los Angeles Dodgers for Blake Dewitt.  What’s that you’re saying?  Blake Dewitt is not nearly scrappy enough, or white enough, for you?  Well, then rest easy.  Ned Colletti will trade him for the most valuable asset in the game of baseball.  That’s right, middle relief. 

                Now you might be wondering why we’d be so eager to rid ourselves of such a great leader.  Well, the thing is, as you may have heard the Los Angeles Dodgers are in a built of a pickle with their ownership.  See, with Frank McCourt at the helm, the Dodgers won’t be able to afford to go after the top tier free agents, or middle-tier for that matter, so we feel Ned’s gifts of overpaying for marginal talent would best be put to use where there might be money for him to waste, pardon, invest.  What the Dodgers will do, is just give a young guy like Logan White a chance to build a cheap team.  Dodger fans everywhere are willing to make this sacrifice for you.  Plus, Ned Colletti already has an awesome Chicago ‘stache.  Hell, if Saturday Night Live ever brings back the “Da Bears” sketch, he could fill the late Chris Farley’s role no problem.  That kind of ‘stache just can’t be bought. 

Sincerely,

Proven Veteran Leaders

And in other news, Kenley Jansen has been activated with Josh Lindblom sent back down to aaa to make room.  Don't worry, Lindblom fans.  He should be up as soon as rosters expand on September 1st.  Also, it looks like Dee Gordon should be back by Saturday.  Let's just hope this means that Eugenio Velez can continue his pursuit of a hitless season in another uniform rather than Justin Sellers getting sent down.  

Things We Learned from Today's Game (8/7/11)

Overview:  Ransom costs Dodgers/Kershaw win.  Diamondbacks 4 Dodgers 3

Pros:  Clayton Kershaw's overall numbers might not look all that great, pitching 6 and 1/3 innings and surrendering four runs while walking three.  This only tells half the story though.  Kershaw struggled out of the gate, walking Ryan Roberts on four pitches then giving up a two run blast to Kelly Johnson on a 3-2 pitch.  Kershaw would go on to walk another in the first, throwing 31 pitches in the inning.  After that, though, he cruised for the next five innings, allowing only two hits.  He looked virtually unbeatable until the seventh when he gave up another two run homer to Cody Ransom, of all people.  Those four runs he gave up were insurmountable for the Dodgers, but Kershaw, for the most part, pitched much better than his line suggests.  He did strike out 7, raising his season total to 184 in 167 and 2/3 innings, and continues to lead the league in that category. 
Other positives that came from today was James Loney homering in the fifth (fun note: I was complaining during his at-bat that he never turned on balls anymore and always seems to pop the ball up to the left side, then immediately after he drove the ball over the right field fence).
Lindblom also looked good, pitching a scoreless inning and 2/3 to finish the game and lower his season ERA to 1.80.
Finally, Aaron Miles scoring from first on a double by Ethier was one of the funniest images I've seen in a long time.  He is a small, hobbit-like man.  

Cons:  As mentioned earlier, Kershaw gave up a homerun to Cody Ransom.  And it was no cheap shot either.  It was gone the second it touched his bat.  Ransom hadn't hit a homerun all year, and in parts of 9seasons in the majors, he has hit a total of 9.  So, of course he hit a homerun against the Dodgers best pitcher.  Why wouldn't he?
Meanwhile, Navarro went hitless, dropping his season average back below .200, while Eugenio Velez, who is not very good, continues to look for his first hit of the season.   Look, I know Gordon is hurting, Furcal's been traded and their aren't a lot of great middle infield options for the Dodgers right now, but can't Ivan DeJesus Jr or Justin Sellers at least get a look?  At least there's some upside in those two.  Eugenio Velez, who is not very good, has zero upside and contributes nothing to this team  now, or the future.  Did I mention he's not very good?  I do hear he's fast, but I have trouble verifying that because I've never seen him on the basepaths before. 
It's not often that we mention negatives about Matt Kemp (much less about Kershaw and Kemp) but I'm not sure what he could've been thinking trying to bunt for a hit.  A guy having an MVP caliber season like he is should pretty much under no circumstances be laying down a bunt.  Even if he had beat it out, it would've been a bad idea.  The Dodgers need his power more than his ability to show off his awesome bunting ability.  By the way, that was sarcasm, because it was a horrible bunt.  We love you, Matt.  We just disagree with this particular decision of yours.  (We don't want to anger him too much, because we'd really like him to sign with the Dodgers long term).

What we learned:  That trotting out an infield of Aaron Miles, Jamey Carroll (nothing against him, he's been very good for this team for two years now, but he still should be a utility player on a better team), Eugenio Velez and James Loney (yes, I remember he homered today, but remember it's just  his fifth of the season), with Dioner Navarro catching, is not going to win many games.  I know some of us were getting excited about the Dodgers playing well of late, but a team that trots those guys out on a regular basis is not a playoff team.  We here at Proven Veteran Leaders don't want to be complete downers, we're just frightened of Ned Colletti getting excited about the "playoff hunt" and trading prospects not on the 40 man roster for, well, Proven Veteran Leaders.