The Dodgers should not spend big on the bullpen next year

Ned Colletti was recently quoted in an interview as saying "I don't think we're that far away" re: the 2012 Dodgers roster.  Strange as this statement may be, we thought we would take a look around at various parts of the team to add our ridiculously insightful opinions on what exactly he may mean, arbitrarily starting with the bullpen. 

When this season started, Jonathan Broxton, Vicente Padilla, and Hong-Chi Kuo were expected to be the bedrocks of the bullpen, a trio of “proven veteran leaders” (see what we did there?) that would dominate the last two to three innings of a game.  That plan worked out flawlessly.

Look, there is no getting around the fact that Broxton was a disappointment this year- though probably not because he lacked the balls to pitch. No matter how much people may say Broxton lacked the heart or guts or other cliches to close, his absence since May 5th shows that his ineffectiveness was due to SOMETHING being wrong with him physically.  Still, he brought no value to the Dodgers this year and will certainly be gone next season.  You can add Vicente Padilla to that list as well, for mostly the same reasons.  We wish them both a healthy recovery and a chance from another team- hopefully one in the American League, so they can’t shut us out 15 times next season as a Giant.  We’ll get to Kuo shortly.  

 
Before we get to the Kuo question, though, let’s look at the good that came from the early season bullpen implosion::  the Dodgers brought up four young pitchers who have quietly (too quietly) been very good this year.  Javy Guerra, Kenley Jansen, Scott Elbert and Josh Lindblom have all stepped up and provided Mattingly with some impressive weapons out of the bullpen.  Guerra got the flashy job- saves are overrated, but 18 of them in 19 attempts is pretty darn good. But what really jumps out to us is the fact that he's only given up one homerun in 169 plate appearances against him while holding opponents to a .602 OPS.  His strikeouts could stand to come up a little, but they're not terrible either.  We already did an entire post on Kenley Jansen so we won't rehash just how great he is here, but needless to say he's still awesome and in fact gotten even better since our post. He and Guerra should be handling the closing duties from here on out in one fashion or another.  Scott Elbert has long been an interesting case- the talent has never been questioned, but he's just never seemed to be able to put it all together,  in particular, his control has always been an issue.  This year, though he’s been used sparingly, it seems like he’s finally figured it out.  His ERA sits at 2.64 in just over thirty innings with 30 strikeouts and, here's the part that has us optimistic about his future, just 11 walks.  Josh Lindblom hasn't been quite as good as the previous three, at least in terms of his strikeout to walk numbers.  His ERA is a shiny 2.88 and he's holding opponents to just a .591 OPS so he's clearly doing something right, but in 25 innings pitched he's struck out 18 and walked 9 (though 3 of them were intentional).  These might not be dazzling stats, but they're good enough to go to battle with him next year.

That leaves us with four locks for the bullpen next year, all (here’s the great part) making the league minimum.  Matt Guerrier and his $3.75MM salary can be added to that list as well-  overpaid he might be, but he's still a veteran, rubber arm type of guy that can eat up middle innings and pitch back to back nights.  Plus, there’s no way anyone else would take him off our hands at that salary, so there you go.
 
So we have one to two spots open in the bullpen next year, depending on whether they go with an 11 or 12 man pitching staff out of the gate.  The current candidates include Hong-Chih Kuo, who has had all kinds of problems this year and stands to make a hefty chunk of change in arbitration next season, Blake Hawksworth, Mike MacDougal, Ramon Troncoso and John Ely.  It's hard to tell which direction the Dodgers will go, but I suspect they won't be willing to pay Hong-Chih Kuo too much, and will continue to have zero faith (for good reason) in Ramon Troncoso.  John Ely doesn't really seem suited to pitching out of the pen, but he has a shot to make the squad as a mop-up/swingman type.  We honestly wouldn't be surprised if Hawksworth and MacDougal are both brought back, and that's not necessarily a bad thing.  Those two probably would not be pitching the highest leverage innings and neither one has been too bad this year either.  

The bottom line is this: the Dodgers are in desperate need of offense and have little money to upgrade.  Let's put aside our hopes of Fielder or Pujols- that just isn’t going to happen- but they're going to have to do something.  Having a bullpen this good, and this cheap, is crucial to providing the payroll flexibility needed to sign a bat or two.  

Wishful Thinking

Could this wonderful partnership/friendship be coming to an end?

 In recent news there is a long shot chance (extremely long shot, so let's not get too excited) that the Cubs may be interested in our very own Ned Colletti to fill their opening for general manager.  Because of our admiration of his work and our desire to see him succeed, we here at Proven Veteran Leaders have decided to be grown-ups about this and submit the following letter of recommendation.

Dear Tom Ricketts,

We are writing on behalf of Ned Colletti, who we believe is an ideal fit to be the general manager of your fine franchise.  He got his start in your organization and we feel that a reunion would be good for you and good for baseball.  You see, Ned’s an old-school type, a real “baseball guy.”  He’s not one of those nerds who tend to rely on things like statistics and “facts” in their evaluations of baseball players.  He relies on his own damn peepers, and looks for players with guts and a knowledge of how to win.  You might be saying to yourself: “Those sound like intangible things with no real way to measure or quantify them.”  Well first of all, that sounds like Communist talk to us.  Second of all, and this really is the greatest thing about Ned Colletti.  There is a way to quantify intangibles, and Ned Colletti is the only one who can do it!  That’s right, he has figured out a way to measure the immeasurable, calculate the incalculable, tangabilize  the intangible. 

                It’s because of this we feel Ned Colletti would be a great leader for your organization.  In addition, he likes the same gritty white players the Cubs seem to enjoy.  We’ve employed both Ryan Theriot and Aaron Miles in the past two seasons.  Of course, you know all about Ryan Theriot as you traded him to the Los Angeles Dodgers for Blake Dewitt.  What’s that you’re saying?  Blake Dewitt is not nearly scrappy enough, or white enough, for you?  Well, then rest easy.  Ned Colletti will trade him for the most valuable asset in the game of baseball.  That’s right, middle relief. 

                Now you might be wondering why we’d be so eager to rid ourselves of such a great leader.  Well, the thing is, as you may have heard the Los Angeles Dodgers are in a built of a pickle with their ownership.  See, with Frank McCourt at the helm, the Dodgers won’t be able to afford to go after the top tier free agents, or middle-tier for that matter, so we feel Ned’s gifts of overpaying for marginal talent would best be put to use where there might be money for him to waste, pardon, invest.  What the Dodgers will do, is just give a young guy like Logan White a chance to build a cheap team.  Dodger fans everywhere are willing to make this sacrifice for you.  Plus, Ned Colletti already has an awesome Chicago ‘stache.  Hell, if Saturday Night Live ever brings back the “Da Bears” sketch, he could fill the late Chris Farley’s role no problem.  That kind of ‘stache just can’t be bought. 

Sincerely,

Proven Veteran Leaders

And in other news, Kenley Jansen has been activated with Josh Lindblom sent back down to aaa to make room.  Don't worry, Lindblom fans.  He should be up as soon as rosters expand on September 1st.  Also, it looks like Dee Gordon should be back by Saturday.  Let's just hope this means that Eugenio Velez can continue his pursuit of a hitless season in another uniform rather than Justin Sellers getting sent down.  

Things We Learned from Today's Game (7/31/11)

We decided to feature a picture of Blake Hawksworth today because, well, when is he ever going to be featured again?




Overview:  Rubby's De La Roasted.  Diamondbacks 6 Dodgers 3

Pros:  Andre Ethier, before flying out to end the game, collected four hits in his first four hit game of the season.  Matt Kemp had a couple hits, though left 3 on base as well.  Juan Rivera, who started for the second time in a row at first base (is management finally realizing that James Loney is just not very good?), contributed two hits including an RBI single.  Dioner Navarro had something of a tale of two games in that he homered and threw out two runners attempting to steal second, but he also grounded into a double play, struck out to end a rally and lost a wild pitch in an embarrassing fashion, allowing Gerardo Parra to go from first all the way to third.  Kudos also go to Blake Hawksworth, who tossed two scoreless innings when De La Rosa failed to make it into the fifth.

Cons:  Speaking of De La rosa, he labored through four innings, needing 103 pitches to do it, while walking four and giving up 3 runs.  We've seen flashes of his potential, but clearly there's still some work to be done in his development.  Hong-Chih Kuo  didn't fare any better.  In his one inning he walked one, gave up 3 hits, one of them a two run homerun to Parra, his second of the game.  Kuo had a rough July, in which he only pitched 4 and 2/3 innings.  In that span he has walked 8 and given up 7 runs, good for a 13.50 ERA.  Clearly he's having some issues, but our question is this:  If you don't trust a guy enough to pitch more than a few innings a month, why even have him on the roster?  He's not going to pitch himself out of his slump while sitting in the bullpen.
 As for the other cons of today's game.  Well, Eugenio Velez is still inexplicably on the roster, Aaron Miles put up an 0fer and the Diamondbacks announcers (I live in Phoenix) are painful to listen to.  They chastised Rafael Furcal for about ten minutes because he never gave up his number 15 jersey, never mind that he'd been wearing the number in a Dodgers uniform for over 5 years, to Davey Lopes.  Then they urged the Diamondbacks to not look ahead to their big series starting tomorrow against San Francisco  until today's game was over, and then proceeded to talk about the big series against San Francisco for the entire game.  I miss Vin Scully everyday.

What we Learned:  That we're not any less upset about Ned Colletti's asinine trade now then we were five hours ago.  A team, who clearly desperately needs offense, can't just trade away one of their top offensive prospects because they're thin at catcher. 

We've changed our minds.

This deal was brilliant.  Just look at that stache.  AND his nickname is Fed Ex.  Ned Colletti probably assumes that A) they must be related, and B) Federowicz moonlights as a deliveryman.

Well, that came out of left field. And by that, I mean Trayvon Robinson.

You mean that was today?  Oh, shit. Guess I better trade my one good Minor League piece.

Right as the trade deadline passed, reports started coming in about Erik Bedard going to the Red Sox.  A strange pickup, considering he hasn't been healthy and is notoriously press and attention shy, but whatever.  I nodded and continued my write up about how the Dodgers blew their chance to acquire some IF/C prospects by spinning off their veteran pieces.

Oh, how stupid of me.  Why trade veterans when we can get rid of our highly regarded minor leaguers instead? The Dodgers have traded Trayvon Robinson in a very confusing three team deal that brings Boston C prospect Tim Federowicz and Seattle Mariners Red Sox pitching prospects Stephen Fife and Juan Rodriguez.

I'm just freestyling here, as info is still coming in and there hasn't really been time to adequately process this information, but my initial reaction to this deal is WHYGODWHYHAVEYOUFORSAKENUS?

Sorry about that.  This is just so ridiculously ill-conceived that I don't even know what to say.  Trayvon Robinson has improved every year he's played in the minor league system, going from org. depth to fringe prospect to legit future piece of the big-league future.  I don't think he was ever going to play in an All-Star game, but he profiled as a decent hitter with plus defense that could play all three outfield positions.  He was going to allow us to move Jerry Sands to move to first base to replace Loney and free up money to address our infield disaster.  He was cheap, young, productive, and healthy, things this team needs desperately.

And the return?  We get a guy that projects as a backup catcher, and two pitchers I can't even find scouting reports for.  

Look, I know that Ned's idea here was to deal from our strength in an effort to shore up a very weak position in the organization.  And maybe details will emerge that paint Fife & Rodriguez as more than just minor league cannon fodder.  But I can't help but see this as yet another example of Colletti's massive ineptitude towards his farm system.  You don't trade a plus prospect for a middling prospect.  Or two.  Or three.  You trade off guys with expiring contracts for middling prospects.  At least, that's what a GOOD GM does.  

UPDATED: The End of the Rafael Fucal Era

Um, yeah.  About that...

UPDATE: Dodgers receive Alex Castellanos, according to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.  Castellanos, a 10th round pick in the 2008 draft, is having a pretty good season in AA this year, hitting .319/.379/.562/.941 overall, but is already 24 (25 next week- happy birthday, Alex) and has 94 strikeouts in 391 ABs so far this year.  He looks to be primarily a RF, but has played 17 games in CF this season, and has played 1B, 2B, 3B, and all 3 OF positions in his minor league career.  He even has 1 game at SS in 2008, where he apparently made 2 errors.  Overall, he looks to be a little better than a typical depth guy, as his power and speed both look solid, but he needs to cut down his K rate before he'll have a shot at moving forward in the organization.

Details are still coming in,  but it appears all but certain that Rafael Furcal is about to join the St. Louis Cardinals, pending his approval as a 10-and-5 player.  It's certainly bittersweet seeing Furcal go- as everyone with even a passing knowledge of Dodger baseball knows, when healthy Furcal had the ability to be one of the most dominating players in all of baseball.  Unfortunately for him and the Dodgers, those healthy periods were rare, increasingly so in the last few years.

We still don't know what the Dodgers are getting in return for Furcal.  Reports say that cash is going along with Furcal in the deal, so it doesn't sound like a straight salary dump, but odds are the return for him won't be much more than a fringe-y prospect.  It also sounds like this trade closes the door on any trade for Jamey Carroll that may have been in the works, as the Dodgers have stated previously that they were open to trading one, but not both, of the players.

Truthfully, while it's a little sad to see Raffy go, this is the best possible situation for all involved.  It's thankfully clear now that Colletti doesn't see the Dodgers' recent mini-hot streak as a sign that they can compete in the division/wild card race and isn't going to make any ill-advised trades for more PVLs (as much as our blog title wishes it were so).  Dee Gordon should be boarding a plane bound for LAX any minute now, adding- at the very least- some much needed fun to the final two months of the season.  Rafael Furcal gets to go play meaningful games every day and attempt to rebuild a little value going into a very uncertain free agency.  And while the Dodgers are sending cash along in the deal, it will save a little payroll space in the grand scheme of things, maybe (?) giving a little more flexibility in the offseason to fill some of the gaping holes at pretty much any infield position.

Plus, we can all cross our fingers that  maybe Colletti got The Riot back in return.